Justified True Belief

Mapping the Landscape of Good Reasons for the Truth of Christianity

Christian Evidences

Evidence & Arguments for Christian Theism

Divinity of Christ

Biblical Evidence for High-Christology: Jesus is God

TBD

Old Testament Criticism

Evidence for the Reliability of the OT Bible

Common Objections

Objection Analyses to Christian Theism

World Religions

Critical Analyses of Non-Christian Religions

Philosophy

Phileō Sophia - to Love Wisdom.

Metaphysics: Free Will

Whether Our Choices Are Up to Us

God's Knowing What You Will Do Does Not Make You Do It

(●) God foreknows every choice his creatures will make, and his foreknowing takes nothing away from the one who chooses. + Tomorrow morning you will stand at the kettle and decide whether to phone your brother. Maybe you will. Maybe you will put it off one more week, the way you did last time. Whatever you settle on, two things Christians say about that moment sound, the first time anyone sets them side by side, as though they cannot both be true. The first is that God already knows which way it goes. Not guesses shrewdly, not reads you well. Knows, and has known since before there was a kettle or a brother or a you. The second is that the decision is yours. Nothing and nobody settles it except you, standing there with the water going off the boil. Theological fatalism says the two cannot stand together. If God knew in advance what you would do, the fatalist argues, then you could not have done anything else, and a deed you could not have avoided was never really yours. This is not a fringe position, and it is not a cheap one. Jonathan Edwards argued it at length and built on it. Some Christians have found it so forceful that they gave up God's knowledge of the future rather than live with it. Its modern form is a carefully built argument that has occupied professional philosophers for sixty years and shows no sign of going away. That last escape, the one that keeps human freedom by shrinking God, costs far more than it saves. A God who has to wait and see what happens is not the God who declares the end from the beginning, and that is not a trade worth making. Who holds what, on theological fatalism: - Support: Jonathan Edwards argued it in 1754, and Nelson Pike gave it its modern form in 1965. - Oppose: Origen answered it in the third century, and Alvin Plantinga gave the answer this argument adopts. The argument that follows refutes it.

(P1) God knows every choice his creatures will ever make. + God's knowledge of the future leaves nothing out, and it reaches the free acts of people as surely as it reaches the motions of the stars. (1) Declaring the future is the test Scripture uses to tell God from an idol. - Isaiah stages a trial and summons the idols to the stand. The challenge put to them is not a parlor trick, and it has nothing to do with thunder or spectacle: "Tell us what is to come hereafter, that we may know that you are gods" (Isaiah 41:23). Knowing what has not happened yet is offered as the credential of deity itself. - God's own answer to that challenge is a claim to do the one thing the idols cannot. He is the one "declaring the end from the beginning and from ancient times things not yet done" (Isaiah 46:10). - He also says, in so many words, why he bothered to announce things ahead of time: "before they came to pass I announced them to you, lest you should say, My idol did them" (Isaiah 48:5). A prediction issued after the event proves nothing whatever about the predictor. The entire force of the claim is that it came first. (2) The knowledge reaches particular acts of particular people. - What is on offer is not merely the broad shape of history, and not merely a report of what God has resolved to do himself. "Even before a word is on my tongue, behold, O Lord, you know it altogether" (Psalm 139:4). A word half-formed and about to leave a mouth is about as free and as small as a human act ever gets. - Jesus tells the disciples about the betrayal before it happens and says exactly why he is doing it: "I am telling you this now, before it takes place, that when it does take place you may believe that I am he" (John 13:19). The foretelling of one man's treachery is put forward as evidence that the speaker is who he says he is. - The prediction to Peter is specific enough that anyone could check it before sunrise: "before the rooster crows twice, you will deny me three times" (Mark 14:30). Not a tendency, not a temperament. A count and a deadline. - Cyrus, the Persian king, is named outright and told what he will do with Jerusalem (Isaiah 44:28-45:1). Who wrote those chapters, and when, is an old argument, and it does not change what the text is doing. • Most critical scholars assign them to the exile, on several grounds at once: the audience addressed is already in Babylon, the city is spoken of as fallen and waiting to be rebuilt, and the vocabulary shifts. Old Testament scholars still defend a single author in print, and the argument between them belongs to their discipline. • On the traditional dating the text names a man who has not been born. On the exilic dating it still announces the fall of Babylon and the rebuilding of a ruined city before either had happened. Either way, announcing what is not yet done is offered as the credential of the God who speaks, which is what (P1) needs. (3) The verses that simply say God knows everything are not what carries the weight. - Two verses get quoted in this dispute more than all the others together, and honesty requires saying at the outset that neither one settles it. Hebrews says that "no creature is hidden from his sight" (Hebrews 4:13). John says that "he knows everything" (1 John 3:20). - Both of them put a limit on nothing, and that is precisely the trouble. Neither verse stops to say whether tomorrow's free acts are among the things there are to know, and that is the very point in dispute. An open theist can affirm both sentences without blinking. - The weight sits on the other texts, on the trial in Isaiah and the rooster in the courtyard, and those are not summaries of a doctrine. They are the argument God makes about himself, staged in a courtroom and tested against rivals who are invited to try the same thing. (4) A being who did not know the future would not be the greatest there could be. - The reasoning here is old and it is short. God is the greatest being there could possibly be, which is what Anselm meant when he called him that than which nothing greater can be conceived. A being who knows everything there is to know is greater than one who does not. So God knows everything there is to know. - Open theists, Christians who hold that the future is genuinely unsettled until it happens, have a reply ready for that. A free act nobody has performed yet is not sitting there waiting to be known, they say, so failing to know it is no more a defect in God than failing to draw a square circle is a defect in a draftsman. - The reply comes in two versions, and they are worth keeping apart. On the first, there is as yet no truth at all about what you will freely do tomorrow. On the second, the truth is there and nobody whatever, God included, could get at it in advance. - Both versions have a heavy load to carry. Ordinary speech treats yesterday's "he will resign" as having been true or false all along. And a prediction of one man's treachery at one supper table, offered as a reason to believe a claim about the speaker, only works if there was something there to get right in the first place (John 13:19). Of the two, the second version carries the heavier load, because a foretelling offered as a ground of faith needs the truth to have been not merely there but within reach of the one who spoke it. (5) The texts that look like God learning speak of him in human terms. - These belong on the table before anyone else puts them there. God "regretted that he had made man on the earth" (Genesis 6:6). After the golden calf "the Lord relented from the disaster that he had spoken of bringing on his people" (Exodus 32:14). At Nineveh, "God relented of the disaster that he had said he would do to them, and he did not do it" (Jonah 3:10). - Read cold, with nothing else in view, those look like a God who did not see it coming. Pretending otherwise would be dishonest. - For the relenting texts Jeremiah states the standing rule the stories are following. If God announces that he will pluck up a nation, "and if that nation, concerning which I have spoken, turns from its evil, I will relent of the disaster that I intended to do to it" (Jeremiah 18:7-8), and the same policy runs in reverse for a promise (Jeremiah 18:9-10). An announced judgment carries a condition whether or not the condition is spelled out, and a condition being met is not a surprise to the one who attached it. - Genesis 6:6 has no announced condition anywhere near it, and it does not need one. The verse pairs the regret with grief of heart, and grief is not surprise. A father who saw from ten years off exactly how his son would turn out can still be cut open by watching it happen. - The same books say the opposite of what the surface suggests, sometimes on the same page. Samuel is told that "the Glory of Israel will not lie or have regret, for he is not a man, that he should have regret" (1 Samuel 15:29), and Balaam that "God is not man, that he should lie, or a son of man, that he should change his mind" (Numbers 23:19). - The king of Nineveh gives the game away himself. "Who knows? God may turn and relent" (Jonah 3:9). The uncertainty in that story belongs to the Ninevites, who had no idea what was coming. It was never said to belong to God. Therefore, the future God knows includes the choices his creatures will make, down to the word before it is spoken.

(P2) A thing certainly known is not thereby a thing that had to happen. + The fatalist's argument, in the form most people meet, goes wrong at one identifiable step, and the step has a name. Naming it does more good than any amount of appeal to mystery, and the harder version of the argument, the one that avoids the step altogether, is taken up in (P3) and (P4). (1) Two sentences look almost alike and say quite different things. - Start in a kitchen. Your daughter is standing in the doorway and you are looking straight at her. Necessarily, if you see her standing in the doorway, she is standing in the doorway. Your seeing settles that much and not one thing more. It does not plant her feet. If she turned around and went back upstairs, you would simply be watching that instead. - Now put God where your eyes were, and tomorrow where the doorway was. Two sentences come out of that. They sound nearly identical, and only one of them is true. - True: necessarily, if God knows you will do something, you will do it. The word "necessarily" governs the whole of the if-then. Given the knowing, the doing follows, and there is no way to have the one without the other. - Not true: if God knows you will do something, then you will necessarily do it. Here "necessarily" has slid off the if-then and landed on the last part all by itself, where it now says something else entirely, that the deed could not have gone otherwise. - Aquinas named the pair being confused. The necessity of the consequence is the airtightness of the inference, the fact that the second thing really does follow from the first. The necessity of the consequent is the thing inferred being unable to have been otherwise (Summa Theologiae I.14.13). The first is true here. The second does not follow from it, and the fatalist's whole case needs it. - Anselm had drawn the same line before him, separating a necessity that forces a thing to happen from a necessity that merely follows it once it is happening (De concordia I). (2) Certainty describes the knower, not the event. - To be certain is to be without doubt, and that is a fact about a mind. For an event to be necessary is for it to have been unable to turn out any other way, and that is a fact about the world. Sliding from the one to the other is the engine of the whole mistake. - Think of it this way: a forecaster who has not been wrong in a thousand years says it will rain on Thursday, and on Thursday it rains. Her certainty did not fall on the fields. And the rain could perfectly well have failed, in which case she would have said so, because that is what being that good at forecasting amounts to. - The fatalist moves from "God cannot be mistaken" to "the deed cannot be otherwise." One of those is a claim about a knower. The other is a claim about an act. Nothing carries you from the first to the second. (3) The argument runs just as well with God left out of it. - Take God out of the picture and put in Smith, a neighbor who merely happens to be right about what you will do tomorrow. Necessarily, if Smith correctly believes you will do it, you will do it. Smith does correctly believe it. So, by the very same reasoning, you must. - Now take Smith out as well and leave the bare truth standing on its own. Necessarily, if it is true that you will do it, you will do it. It is true. So you must. - On that reasoning every "I told you so" in history turns out to have been a sentence passed on the person told, and the theological fatalist rejects that conclusion as firmly as anyone else does. - The substitution is a test of the inference rather than a comparison between knowers, and the difference is worth being careful about. It would be no good at all to say that human foreknowledge compels nobody and therefore divine foreknowledge compels nobody, because a human forecaster can be wrong and God cannot. - What the substitution shows is narrower than that, and harder to escape. The inference uses nothing about the believer except that his belief is true. So whatever is wrong with it in Smith's hands is wrong with it in God's. - Pressed on this, the fatalist repairs his argument by putting back what the substitution left out. Not merely that God believes, but that it is now beyond anyone's reach that he believed, the belief being lodged in a past nobody can get at and held by a believer who could not have been mistaken. That is a different and a far better argument, and (P4) is where it is taken. - One more thing is worth knowing about the popular version. It is Greek logical fatalism, the fatalism you can run on a bare true statement with no God anywhere in it, and it is older than any Christian doctrine of foreknowledge. Aristotle met it as the puzzle of tomorrow's sea battle (On Interpretation 9), the Stoics were arguing over it before a word of the New Testament was written, and the Mishnah has the rabbis setting the two halves down side by side without the least embarrassment: everything is foreseen, and freedom of choice is given (Avot 3.15). Adding God changes nothing in the reasoning except who finds it impressive. (4) A constraint nobody can describe is not a constraint. - Notice how little the fatalist actually claims about the act itself. He does not say your choice was caused by anything. He grants that nothing pushed you, that no prior state settled it, that you weighed it up and decided. He says only that it was somehow fixed anyway. - Fixed by what? Not by a cause, since he has just conceded there was none. The answer usually given is that the constraint is logical rather than causal: what you do has to be consistent with a belief that was already held, and consistency really is a limit, even where nothing pushes. - Limits of that kind are lying around everywhere and nobody calls them coercion. A man who played basketball last winter cannot now play basketball for the first time, and that is impossible in the strictest sense there is. It does not keep him off the court this evening. To say that Jones's staying home would be inconsistent with a belief that was in fact held is a remark about which descriptions fit together. It is not a report of anything Jones is unable to do. - Think of Zeno's arguments that motion is impossible. They are ingenious, they are genuinely hard to answer, and philosophers were still publishing solutions two thousand years later. Nobody ever concluded that the arrow was standing still. - Run the test yourself. Delete God's knowing from the picture, and the fatalist agrees the act is free. Put it back, and suddenly it is not. Nothing whatever about the act has changed in between. A knowledge that makes no difference to its object cannot be what makes the object unavoidable. (5) The distinction does real work on a real case. - Luther called this very distinction "a play on words," and anybody who suspects he had a point deserves better in reply than a Latin phrase and a confident tone. - So here is the work it does. Suppose you will in fact keep an appointment tomorrow, and God knows it. Ask first what the fatalist needs in order to win. He needs it to be the case that you are unable to stay home. Now ask what he has actually shown, which is that if you stayed home, God would never have believed you were coming. - Those are not the same claim, and only the first of them is fatalism. The second is true and perfectly harmless, and (P3) and (P4) are where it is made good. Therefore, being certainly known by God is not a property that makes an act unavoidable.

(C1) Therefore, God's knowing a choice does not make it unavoidable. + God's knowing that you will do a thing does not make the thing unavoidable. That is what stands once the slide from "certainly known" to "had to happen" has been blocked. (1) The form is a general rule applied to a particular case. - A deductive argument works like a locked chain. If every link holds, the conclusion cannot slip out; you either break a link or take what comes. - The general rule is (P2): being certainly known does not make a thing unavoidable. (P1) puts God's knowledge of your choices under that rule, since if any knowledge anywhere is certain, his is. Apply the rule to the case and the conclusion is simply sitting there. His knowing a choice does not make it unavoidable. - Neither premise has to be certain. Each has to be more believable than its denial, which is the standard a deductive argument is held to, and it is a real standard rather than a lenient one. A premise more likely false than true sinks the whole thing. - The two premises fail in quite different ways, and the difference is worth seeing. Deny (P2) and the conclusion goes with it, and so does every true guess anybody has ever made about the future, each of which turns out to have been a sentence passed on the person guessed about. Deny (P1) and the conclusion survives with less work to do, because a God who does not know what you will say tomorrow was never going to threaten your saying it. That second route costs a doctrine rather than refuting an argument, and it is the road open theism takes. (2) Knowledge is not a force. - In conversation the objection nearly always arrives with a picture attached. Foreknowledge gets imagined as a kind of advance pressure, a rail laid down ahead of the train, so that the knowing does something to the act. - It does nothing to the act, and (P2) is the reason. Nothing travels from the knower to the known. There is no rail. (3) The version philosophers press makes no such mistake. - The serious form of the argument grants every word of (P2). It agrees that God's knowing causes nothing at all, and it agrees that the two necessities are different things. - Then it makes a wholly separate move. God's believing happened in the past, and the past is over. Nobody can arrange for the Battle of Hastings to have been fought in 1067. - That argument is not a fallacy and it is not easily dismissed. It is the real objection, and (P3) and (P4) take it. Therefore, nothing about God's knowing a choice makes the choice unavoidable.

(P3) God knows a choice because it will be made, not the other way round. + Knowledge conforms to what is known. That has been true of every knower there has ever been, and a knower who cannot possibly be wrong is no exception. (1) Knowledge takes its shape from its object. - Your knowing that a friend is left-handed does not make him left-handed. He is left-handed, and that is why the belief you hold about him is a true one rather than a false one. - The same thing runs through every case anyone can think of. A true report depends on the event, and the event does not depend on the report. - The fatalist's picture turns that around. It stands the knowledge upstream of the act and lets the knowledge shape the act the way a mold shapes what is poured into it. Nothing in the idea of knowledge supports that, and everything in ordinary usage cuts against it. Foreknowledge follows an act the way a shadow follows a walker, and nobody has ever suspected the shadow of doing the walking. - Think of it this way: a wedding photograph is accurate because of what happened at the wedding. Nobody has ever supposed that the wedding happened because the photograph came out well. - The dependence being claimed here is not the camera's, and the difference is worth pausing over. Light traveled from the wedding to the film, so there is a physical story to tell about the photograph. Nothing at all travels from Saturday's mowing back to a belief held eighty years earlier. - Two orders are being kept apart in all of this, and the words for them are worth learning. One thing is chronologically prior to another when it comes earlier in time, the way the wedding comes before the print. One thing is logically prior to another when it is the reason the other is as it is, the way the wedding is why the print shows what it shows. God's knowing is chronologically prior to the act and logically posterior to it, and once you have the two words there is nothing strange about that pairing at all. (2) This has been the church's answer since the third century. - Origen gave it against Celsus: a thing does not come about because God knows it; God knows it because it is going to come about (Contra Celsum II.20). - Augustine gave the same answer to Cicero, who had looked at divine foreknowledge and concluded that nothing whatever is in our power (City of God V.9-10). - John of Damascus fixed the formula the Eastern church has used ever since: God foreknows all things, but he does not predetermine all things (Exposition of the Orthodox Faith II.30). - Arminius put it in one sentence that could be carved over the whole dispute: "a thing does not come to pass because it has been foreknown or foretold; but it is foreknown and foretold because it is yet to come to pass." (3) The hardest objection grants every word of this. - Admitting that is not a retreat, and it costs nothing. The serious critic does not claim that God's knowledge causes anything at all, and pretending that he does would be answering a weaker man than the one who is standing there. - What he claims instead is that the knowledge is lodged in the past, eighty years back and out of anybody's reach, and that the past is closed for business. - Answering that takes a further step, and (P4) is the step. Therefore, the direction of dependence runs from the act to the knowledge, and never from the knowledge to the act.

(P4) What God believed long ago about a choice depends on the choice itself. + The strongest version of the objection never says that God's knowledge pushes anybody around. It says that God's belief is lodged in a past nobody can reach, and the answer is that a belief about tomorrow is exactly the kind of past fact that waits on tomorrow. (1) The objection at full strength: Jones and his lawn. - It went into print in 1965 and philosophers have been working on it ever since. Take Jones, a man who mows his lawn on Saturday afternoon. • Eighty years ago, God believed that Jones would mow his lawn on Saturday afternoon. • God is not merely accurate but essentially infallible. Being the God he is, he could not have held that belief and been wrong, and no creature could have made him wrong. • What happened eighty years ago is over and done with. Nobody now has any power over it at all. • So if Jones is genuinely able to refrain on Saturday, he must hold one of three powers: the power to make that eighty-year-old belief a false one, or the power to bring it about that God held some other belief than the one he held, or the power to bring it about that the believer was never there. • The first is ruled out by what God is. The second and the third are powers over the past. Nobody has any of the three, so Jones was never able to refrain, and the mowing was not voluntary. - Nothing in that confuses the necessity of the consequence with the necessity of the consequent. It grants everything (P2) and (P3) establish, and it runs instead on two other things entirely, on what God is and on the fixity of the past. That is why the answer given in (P2) leaves it standing. (2) Facts about the past come in two kinds. - A hard fact about the past is one whose truth is complete in its own time: it was made true by how things stood then, and it waits on nothing still to come. That Socrates drank hemlock is a hard fact. Nothing that happens from here on has any bearing on it. - A soft fact about the past is one whose truth depends on what comes later. Take 1066. It is a fact about 1066 that the Battle of Hastings was fought that year, and that fact is hard as iron. It is also a fact about 1066 that it was the year of the last successful invasion of England, and that one is soft: whether it is true depends on whether another invasion ever succeeds, and if one does, it will turn out never to have been true. - From the outside the two look alike. Both are stated in the past tense and both are perfectly true. What separates them is which way they lean. - The labels are modern. The distinction behind them is not, because Ockham drew it in the fourteenth century, arguing that some past-tense statements are about the past only in their grammar. (3) God's believing something about a free act is a soft fact. - Start with what makes a past fact soft in the first place. It is soft when it depends on what is still to come, and God's ancient belief is exactly that. What he believed is settled by what he knew, and what he knew is settled by what will in fact happen, so the belief leans forward rather than standing there whatever the future does. - There is a second test, and it is the sharper of the two. Picture a barometer on a kitchen wall, falling at noon. Ask what that noon reading guarantees about midnight and the answer is nothing at all: it makes a storm likely, and likely is as far as it goes. A fact shut up inside its own moment behaves exactly like that reading. - Now set God's noon belief beside the barometer. His believing at noon that the storm will come does guarantee midnight, because the believer cannot be wrong. You cannot so much as say what he believed without saying what midnight holds. A fact that carries midnight around inside it was never a fact only about noon. - The objection needs God's ancient belief to be hard, and that is a claim it owes an argument for rather than something it may quietly help itself to. The case usually made is that believing is a state the believer was in at the time, and that how a thing stood at a moment is as settled as the moment. - What that case leaves out is the content of the belief. A temperature can be described completely without mentioning anything outside the moment it was taken in. A belief cannot, because a belief is about something, and this one is about Saturday. "He believed on Monday that Friday's flight would land safely" reports a state of Monday and reaches out to Friday in the same breath, and it is Friday that settles what kind of belief Monday held. - Which past facts are hard and which are soft is not something anyone can tell by looking. "She wore a blue coat that morning" and "she wore the coat she would later lose" are both about the same morning, and only the second of them waits on what happens next. (4) Jones needs no power over the past. - Jones cannot reach back and erase a belief. He cannot make a belief false. He cannot unmake the believer. All three really are impossible, and the objection works only if those three exhaust his options, which is the assumption it never stops to examine. - There is a fourth option, and it is an entirely ordinary one. Jones can do something other than what he will do, and if he were to do it, God would always have believed that instead. - Think of it this way: a woman took a job last year, and she could perfectly well have turned it down. Had she turned it down, God would never have believed she would take it. Nothing about the past has been reached back into. A different past would simply have been the one there was. - The grammar carries the whole difference. Not "he can change what God believed," but "were he to act otherwise, God would have believed otherwise." The first claims a power over the past. The second is a counterfactual, the philosopher's word for a statement about what would have been the case had things gone differently. - Counterfactuals point backward all the time and nobody reaches back into anything. If the letter had arrived on Tuesday, it would have been posted on Monday. Nobody imagines that Tuesday's arrival went back and posted it. (5) The distinction was not invented to rescue foreknowledge. - It would be a fair complaint if the soft fact were a device built for this one job, and suspicion on that score is exactly the right instinct. - It is not such a device, and the reason is that the sorting is needed by everybody, whatever they think about God. It was already true eighty years ago that you would get out of bed this morning at the hour you got out of bed, and that is a past-tense truth like any other. If every past-tense truth were closed in the way the fatalist's argument needs, that plain fact about 1946 would have abolished your freedom at the alarm clock with God left out of the story altogether. He has to say why his principle does not reach that far, and the only answer available to him is that some truths about the past wait on the future. - The distinction earns its keep in places where God never comes up at all. Historians say that 1066 was the year of the last successful invasion of England. Commentators say that a match was a player's last. Nobody finds either remark mysterious, and nobody suspects it of having been invented for the occasion. Soft facts are ordinary furniture. Therefore, God's ancient belief about a free act is one of the facts that wait on the act, and not one of the facts that close it off.

(C2) Therefore, God's foreknowledge leaves every choice up to the one who makes it. + God foreknows what you will do, and the doing stays yours. A fact can make an act unavoidable in two ways and no more, and God's knowing a choice manages neither of them. (1) There are two roads from a fact to an unavoidable act. - Suppose some fact makes an act unavoidable. There are only two ways it could manage the trick. Either it is among the things that bring the act about, or it is itself beyond everybody's reach and guarantees the act, so that the act inherits that same fixity. - The first road is closed. Knowledge conforms to its object, so the knowing stands downstream of the act and is not among the things that bring it about (P3). - The second road is closed too. God's ancient belief is among the facts that depend on what will be done, so it is not beyond everybody's reach, and its pastness has no fixity to pass along (P4). - Think of the two roads as the only two ways a photograph could be blamed for a wedding. Either the camera arranged the marriage, or the picture was fixed in advance and the couple had to match it. Nobody believes either one, and the picture's being perfectly accurate does not supply a third. - Anybody who wants a third road has to name it. There is one serious candidate, and it travels in the opposite direction from the fatalist's. Rather than arguing from God's knowledge forward to the act's necessity, it argues that a genuinely open choice is not the sort of thing anyone could know in advance, so something must have settled the act before there was anything for God to know. That is a question about where foreknowledge comes from, not about what foreknowledge does. (2) Nothing makes Jones mow the lawn. - From God's knowing that Jones will mow the lawn, it follows with certainty that Jones will mow the lawn. It does not follow that he must. - He can put the mower back in the shed and go golfing. He merely will not. And if he were to go golfing, God would have known that from eternity, and there would never have been a belief about mowing for anybody to worry over. (3) The answer holds whichever way the open questions go. - How God knows a free act, given that it has not happened yet, is a different objection with a different answer, and it is a good objection. - Whether God is timeless or everlasting in time is a question for the doctrine of God, and (P3) and (P4) run on either view. - Whether God knows what you will do because he decreed it, fixing from eternity that you would do exactly that, is the largest question in the neighborhood, and nothing from (P1) through (P4) settles it. Nor does it have to. A Christian who holds that God decrees every act and a Christian who holds that he decrees none can both say that foreknowledge as such takes nothing away, and an answer that needs no verdict there is available to more people rather than fewer. (4) Freedom does not stand or fall on alternatives. - Suppose a fatalist somehow managed to show that a foreknown act could not have gone otherwise. He would still have to show that the man who acted was not the source of the act, and nothing in the argument from foreknowledge so much as touches that question. - This matters more than it looks at first glance. God cannot sin, and he is praised for his goodness. The saints in glory, the redeemed who are already home with him, cannot sin either, and they are freer than they have ever been. Any principle that made a missing alternative fatal to freedom would strip the freedom from both, and that is a price no Christian should be willing to pay. Therefore, God knows what you will do, and nothing in his knowing it takes the doing out of your hands.

On foreknowledge and freedom: Adams, Marilyn McCord. "Is the Existence of God a 'Hard' Fact?" Philosophical Review 76, no. 4 (1967): 492-503. Craig, William Lane. Divine Foreknowledge and Human Freedom: The Coherence of Theism I: Omniscience. Leiden: Brill, 1990. Craig, William Lane. The Only Wise God: The Compatibility of Divine Foreknowledge and Human Freedom. Grand Rapids: Baker, 1987. Craig, William Lane. Systematic Philosophical Theology, vol. IIa, On God: Divine Attributes. Hoboken: Wiley-Blackwell, 2025. Fischer, John Martin, ed. God, Foreknowledge, and Freedom. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1989. Freddoso, Alfred J. "Accidental Necessity and Logical Determinism." Journal of Philosophy 80, no. 5 (1983): 257-278. Hunt, David P. "On Augustine's Way Out." Faith and Philosophy 16, no. 1 (1999): 3-26. McKay, Thomas J., and David Johnson. "A Reconsideration of an Argument against Compatibilism." Philosophical Topics 24, no. 2 (1996): 113-122. O'Connor, Timothy, and Christopher Franklin. "Free Will." In The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, edited by Edward N. Zalta, 2022. Plantinga, Alvin. "On Ockham's Way Out." Faith and Philosophy 3, no. 3 (1986): 235-269. Zagzebski, Linda Trinkaus. The Dilemma of Freedom and Foreknowledge. New York: Oxford University Press, 1991. On the doctrine of God's knowledge: Beilby, James K., and Paul R. Eddy, eds. Divine Foreknowledge: Four Views. Downers Grove, IL: InterVarsity Press, 2001. Flint, Thomas P. Divine Providence: The Molinist Account. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1998. Helm, Paul. Eternal God: A Study of God without Time. 2nd ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010. Helm, Paul. Reforming Free Will. Fearn: Christian Focus, 2020. Leftow, Brian. Time and Eternity. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1991. Stratton, Timothy A. Human Freedom, Divine Knowledge, and Mere Molinism: A Biblical, Historical, Theological, and Philosophical Analysis. 2nd ed. Eugene, OR: Wipf and Stock, 2026. On the book of Isaiah: Motyer, J. Alec. The Prophecy of Isaiah: An Introduction and Commentary. Downers Grove, IL: InterVarsity Press, 1993. Oswalt, John N. The Book of Isaiah, Chapters 40-66. New International Commentary on the Old Testament. Grand Rapids: Eerdmans, 1998. Critic sources engaged: Bignon, Guillaume. Excusing Sinners and Blaming God: A Calvinist Assessment of Determinism, Moral Responsibility, and Divine Involvement in Evil. Eugene, OR: Pickwick, 2018. Boyd, Gregory A. God of the Possible: A Biblical Introduction to the Open View of God. Grand Rapids: Baker, 2000. Haack, Susan. "On a Theological Argument for Fatalism." Philosophical Quarterly 24, no. 95 (1974): 156-159. Hasker, William. God, Time, and Knowledge. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1989. Pike, Nelson. "Divine Omniscience and Voluntary Action." Philosophical Review 74, no. 1 (1965): 27-46. Pike, Nelson. God and Timelessness. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1970. Pinnock, Clark H., Richard Rice, John Sanders, William Hasker, and David Basinger. The Openness of God: A Biblical Challenge to the Traditional Understanding of God. Downers Grove, IL: InterVarsity Press, 1994. Prior, A. N. "The Formalities of Omniscience." Philosophy 37, no. 140 (1962): 114-129. Sanders, John. The God Who Risks: A Theology of Divine Providence. Downers Grove, IL: InterVarsity Press, 1998. Taylor, Richard. "Fatalism." Philosophical Review 71, no. 1 (1962): 56-66. van Inwagen, Peter. An Essay on Free Will. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1983. Ancient and medieval sources: Anselm, De concordia I. Aquinas, Thomas, Summa Theologiae I.14.13. Aristotle, On Interpretation 9. Augustine, City of God V.9-10. Boethius, The Consolation of Philosophy V.3-6. Cicero, On Fate 28-30. Duns Scotus, John, Lectura I, d. 39. John of Damascus, An Exact Exposition of the Orthodox Faith II.30. Mishnah, Avot 3.15. Ockham, William of, Predestination, God's Foreknowledge, and Future Contingents. Translated by Marilyn McCord Adams and Norman Kretzmann. 2nd ed. Indianapolis: Hackett, 1983. Origen, Contra Celsum II.20. Reformation and later: Arminius, Jacobus. The Works of James Arminius. Translated by James Nichols and William Nichols. London, 1825-1875. Edwards, Jonathan. Freedom of the Will. 1754. Part II, sections 11-12. Luther, Martin. The Bondage of the Will. 1525. Translated by J. I. Packer and O. R. Johnston. Westwood, NJ: Fleming H. Revell, 1957. Biblical citations: Genesis 6:6; 18:12-13, 21; 22:12; Exodus 32:14; Numbers 23:19; Deuteronomy 8:2; 1 Samuel 15:29; 2 Kings 20:6; Psalm 139:4; Isaiah 41:23; 44:28-45:1; 46:10; 48:5; Jeremiah 18:7-10; Jonah 3:9-10; Matthew 26:24; Mark 14:30; John 13:19; Acts 2:23; Hebrews 4:13; 1 John 3:20.
+ The "soft fact" is a device invented to save the doctrine. God's believing something eighty years ago is a fact about eighty years ago, and saying you have power over it is saying you can change the past.
1. Nobody is claiming power over the past. This is the objection that matters most, and it comes from people who deserve a hearing. John Martin Fischer and Linda Zagzebski have both pressed it hard, and neither of them is a fatalist looking for trouble; both simply think the Ockhamist reply falls apart on inspection. That reply takes its name from William of Ockham, the fourteenth-century English friar who argued that a past-tense truth can be about the past only in its grammar, which is the distinction (P4) puts to work. Start by conceding everything that should be conceded. Jones cannot make God's past belief false. He cannot erase it. He cannot reach back and alter one second of 1946. If the reply needed any one of those, it would be finished on the spot. It needs none of them. What it says is an if-then statement about what would have been the case, and not a claim about what can be done to what was: had Jones acted otherwise, God would always have believed otherwise. That sentence asserts no power to change anything whatever. It describes a dependence. 2. The distinction between changing the past and a different past is not a dodge. Take a case with no theology anywhere in it. There is a letter in your drawer and you will post it tomorrow. That being so, it is already true today that the letter will be posted. Now suppose that tomorrow you burn it instead. You will not have changed today's truth about the letter. There will simply never have been that truth in the first place, and today will have contained a different truth all along. Nothing has been reached into. The past that would have been is a different past rather than an altered one, and the difference between those two ideas is exactly the difference between the objection and the reply. 3. Softness is not a special exemption carved out for God. The charge of convenience would stick if soft facts appeared nowhere else. They appear everywhere. "She wore the coat she would later lose" is a fact about a morning that waits on an afternoon. "That was his last game" waits on everything that follows. Whole classes of ordinary past-tense truths lean forward like this, and no one finds them mysterious. So what the objection has to show is not that softness is odd, but that God's belief in particular is hard. There is a real argument for that. 4. The best case for hardness turns on God's intrinsic state. The serious version does not merely assert that the past is fixed and leave it there. It offers a test for telling hard facts from soft ones, and the test is intrinsicness: a fact about a moment is hard when it concerns only how things stood in that moment, borrowing nothing at all from later ones. That Socrates drank hemlock passes the test easily. That 1066 was the year of the last successful invasion does not, since it borrows from every century since. And believing, the objection goes on, is a state the believer was in at the time, as much a feature of that moment as his height, so God's believing eighty years ago is hard by the very test the Ockhamist needs. Grant the test. A belief still fails it, and for a reason peculiar to beliefs. A height can be given completely without mentioning anything outside the moment it was measured in. A belief cannot, because a belief is about something, and this one is about Saturday. Try describing God's state eighty years ago without mentioning Saturday anywhere: what you will have described is some other belief, or else no belief at all. Whatever else God's ancient believing is, it is not shut up inside the moment it was held in. That does not end the dispute, and saying it did would be dishonest. What it does is put the burden back where it started. The objection cannot simply help itself to the fixity of the past, because the fixity of the past is the thing in question. What it owes is a test that sorts hard facts from soft ones and lands beliefs on the hard side, and the best test it has produced does not do that. 5. The critics' own verdict is narrower than the objection sounds. Zagzebski's conclusion is not that the Ockhamist answer is absurd. It is that every available answer to the dilemma pays somewhere, her own included, and that is an honest report of where the literature stands rather than a verdict handed to the fatalist. Of the bills on offer, the Ockhamist one looks like the smallest. It gives up nothing about God, it needs no theory of time, and it asks only that a belief about the future be the kind of past fact that depends on the future. That is a judgment about costs rather than a proof, and it can be argued with. What it is not is a concession that the argument from the fixity of the past goes through. See also: Philosophy / Free Will: Counterfactuals of Freedom Can Be True: The Grounding Objection
+ Boethius settled this fifteen hundred years ago: God is outside time, so he does not foreknow anything, he sees it all at once. Why go through the soft facts at all?
1. The Boethian answer is real, not a dodge. It is the church's oldest reply to the problem. God's life, Boethius wrote, is the whole and perfect possession all at once of unending life, so every moment is present to him: he does not look ahead to your Thursday, he simply sees it, the way you see the room you are sitting in. Aquinas took the answer over, and its modern defenders are serious philosophers. The picture is genuinely helpful. If nothing is earlier or later for God, there is no ancient belief sitting in a closed past, and the argument from the fixity of the past (P4) loses its first step. 2. Timelessness by itself does not dispose of the argument. Here is the difficulty, and there is nothing obscure about it. What the fatalist's argument really runs on is not pastness at all. It runs on a fact being beyond everybody's reach, and pastness was only the most obvious example of such a fact. A timeless eternity is at least as far beyond reach as eighty years ago is, since nothing anybody does can get behind it or in front of it. Zagzebski built that parallel deliberately, and the dilemma duly reappears in a timeless key, with the necessity of eternity doing exactly the work the necessity of the past had been doing. The answer turns out to be the same one, and it transfers without strain. A fact is soft when it waits on what will happen, and nothing in that definition requires the fact to be a past one. The present truth that God timelessly knows your Thursday waits on your Thursday just as the ancient belief did. Defenders of the timeless view have a reply of their own to make here, that eternity is not a past at all and that a rule about the fixity of the past cannot simply be carried across to it, and that exchange is still running. It does not need to be settled either way. On either verdict the soft-fact answer finishes the job, which is why it was carrying the weight all along. 3. Neither premise needs a verdict on whether God is in time. Nothing in (P3) or (P4) requires one. If God is timeless, his knowledge is of an eternal present and the dependence still runs from act to knowledge. If he is everlasting in time, the same holds and the soft fact answers the fixity. That is a feature rather than an evasion. Whether God is timeless is a question for the doctrine of God, Christians of every communion are found on both sides of it, and an argument about human freedom that forced a choice there would be overreaching.
+ The distinction between the two necessities is a play on words. Luther said so, and he was right: wherever you park the word "necessarily," if God knows it then it is going to happen, and that is the end of your freedom.
1. Luther really did say it. He called the scholastic distinction a play on words and thought it a piece of evasion, and anyone who has watched a philosopher slide a "necessarily" around a sentence will feel the force of the complaint. A distinction that cannot be cashed out for anything is a trick, and a charge like that has to be answered rather than out-argued. So the test is whether this particular distinction does any work. Not whether it can be stated in Latin. 2. On a real case the two readings come apart. Suppose you will keep an appointment tomorrow and God knows it. - What everyone grants: you will keep it, and there is no way things could go in which God knows you will keep it and you do not. - What the fatalist needs: that you are unable to stay home. Those two come apart at once. From the first it follows that you will go. To get the second you need the further claim that you cannot stay home, and nothing whatever in the first supplies it. If you were to stay home, the situation would not be one in which God had known wrongly. It would be one in which God had always known you would stay home. 3. The charge convicts the objection, not the reply. Grant Luther his instinct that a merely verbal distinction proves nothing, and then apply that instinct evenhandedly. It is the fatalist's argument that depends on where a word sits. Move "necessarily" from the front of the conditional to the middle and his conclusion appears out of nowhere; move it back and the conclusion vanishes again. The reply is the one pointing that out. It is not the one relying on it. 4. Luther had already denied the freedom the distinction protects. He was not confused about any of this. On his view of the will there is nothing left for the distinction to save, so of course it looked idle to him. But that is a substantive position about human freedom rather than a point about logic, and it has to be argued on its own merits. Which means the appeal to Luther proves rather less than it seems to. It reports the verdict of a man who had already decided the larger question.
+ If God has known since before I was born what I will do, then it is all settled already. Nothing I do makes any difference, so I may as well stop trying.
1. This is the objection people actually live with. It usually arrives after a diagnosis, or a wasted decade, or a prayer that went unanswered. It is not a debating move, and it deserves a straight answer rather than a clever one. The thought behind it is that if the film has already been shot, watching it attentively changes nothing. The answer is not clever. It is that the word "settled" is doing two different jobs in that sentence, and only one of them is honest work. 2. Known in advance is not the same as fixed without you. What is true is that there is a fact of the matter about what you will do, and that God knows it. What does not follow is that the fact was arrived at without you. Turn it around for a moment. What God foreknows about tomorrow is what you will in fact decide, weighing and hesitating and changing your mind and all. Your deliberating is not bypassed by his knowing it; your deliberating is part of what he knows. Take the objection seriously and notice what it quietly asks of you: to picture your own weighing up as a formality, a going through of motions whose outcome was fixed somewhere else. There is nothing in foreknowledge that makes it one. 3. The same reasoning would retire every effort anyone has ever made. That is how you can tell it is broken. The argument makes no use at all of the fact that the thing foreknown is a choice, so it runs just as well on anything else. - It is already settled whether the crop will come in, so why plant. - It is already settled whether the patient will recover, so why operate. - It is already settled whether the brakes will hold, so why have them checked. Nobody lives that way, and that includes the person making the objection. The reason nobody lives that way is that in each of those cases the outcome runs through the effort. Remove the effort and you have not revealed the settled outcome lying underneath it. You have described a different outcome altogether. 4. Neither Scripture nor the church has ever reasoned this way. The same Bible that has God declaring the end from the beginning also has Paul working harder than any of the other apostles, Daniel praying three times a day with the windows open, and a whole city of Ninevites fasting in sackcloth on the bare chance that God might relent. Not one of those people was ever told that his effort was decorative. The mistake is old enough to have a classical name. The Stoics called it the lazy argument, and it went like this: if you are fated to recover, calling the doctor is pointless, and if you are fated not to recover, calling him is pointless again. Chrysippus answered that the recovery and the calling are fated together, which is the same observation in older words. The outcome runs through the effort (Cicero, On Fate 28-30). Fatalism, the belief that what will be will be no matter what anybody does, is not a Christian doctrine, and the church has been refusing it since the Fathers first argued with the Stoics.
+ The real problem is not whether foreknowledge rules out freedom; it is that there is nothing there to know. A free choice that has not been made yet has no truth about it for God to get right.
1. This is a better objection. Credit where it belongs. A. N. Prior pressed it only after granting the Ockhamist reply on its own ground. He allowed that a past truth about the future can genuinely depend on what is still to come. Then he asked the awkward question: what could a past truth of that kind possibly be known on the basis of, given that the events it leans on have not happened yet? Without some present ground for the belief, he thought, the alleged knowledge is no better than a lucky guess that happened to come off. That is not fatalism, and it does not commit the mistake (P2) identifies. It asks how foreknowledge is possible at all, rather than whether foreknowledge and freedom can both stand. 2. The same objection is pressed from the Reformed side. The version you are likelier to meet in a church hall runs this way. A choice that could equally have gone either way, with nothing whatever settling which way it went, is not the kind of thing anybody could know infallibly in advance. So if God does know it infallibly, something must have settled it, and the only candidate for that job is God. This is a serious argument, and it is not the fatalist's argument. It runs from the possibility of the knowledge back to the settledness of the act, rather than from the knowledge forward to the act's necessity. The complaint is not about time at all, and its defenders show as much by what they decline to use. Its ablest modern advocate holds that God is timeless, which puts the Boethian escape within easy reach, and he does not take it. What he wants to know is what the knowledge rests on. 3. The objection assumes that God knows by looking. It takes for granted that there has to be a present scene for God to inspect, and that if the scene is not there yet then neither is the knowledge. Call that the perceptualist picture, the picture of knowing as a kind of seeing. It is what most people import without noticing when they say that God "sees" the future, and it sits behind almost every modern denial of foreknowledge. There is no reason God's knowledge should work that way, and there is good reason to think it does not. Nobody has ever asked through what window God sees that two and two make four. 4. (P3) and (P4) say nothing about how God knows. (P3) says God knows a choice because it will be made. (P4) says his ancient belief depends on the act. Neither one says a word about how the knowing gets accomplished, and neither one needs to. So this objection, even if it succeeded completely, would leave both premises standing and strike instead at omniscience, God's knowing everything there is to know, from a different side. Those are two different complaints. Keeping them apart is the difference between answering the man and talking past him. 5. How God knows a free act has answers of its own. The short form of the answer is that God does not acquire his knowledge by any process at all, because a perfect being knows every truth there is simply in virtue of what he is. The fuller form adds an account of the how, given in terms of what God knows every creature would freely do in any circumstance he might be placed in. Both of those belong to the question of how foreknowledge is possible, and neither is needed to answer the fatalist. See also: Philosophy / Free Will: God Does Not Look Ahead: How Foreknowledge Is Possible Philosophy / Free Will: God Knows What You Would Freely Do, and Plans Around It
+ You have the answer backwards: God knows what you will do because he decreed that you would do it. Foreknowledge is no puzzle at all once you see that it rests on his will.
1. The decree reading solves the problem completely. Start by granting that this is not a muddle. If God has decreed everything that comes to pass, settling from eternity that each thing will happen exactly as it does, then his knowledge of the future is knowledge of his own intentions. No question arises about what the knowledge rests on, and none arises about the fixity of the past. The whole puzzle simply dissolves. It is also the answer of a large part of the church, held by people who have thought about it longer and harder than most of us ever will, and it will not do to treat it as a failure of nerve. 2. It buys the solution with the freedom it was meant to protect. The price becomes visible the moment it is named. If God's knowing that Jones will mow rests on God's decreeing that Jones will mow, then given the decree Jones could not have done otherwise, and the source of the mowing is the decree rather than Jones. That is not some incidental cost to be absorbed. It is the very conclusion the fatalist wanted, arrived at by a friendlier road. Foreknowledge did not take Jones's freedom. The decree did. 3. The decree does not answer the question; it relocates it. Whether God governs by determining each choice, and whether a decreed sin leaves its sinner responsible, is an argument of its own and a long one. What matters here is that this objection does not defeat (P3) or (P4). It declines the question by settling a larger one first. So the narrow claim stands. Not one premise needs a decree, and foreknowledge as such takes nothing away, which is precisely what somebody who does not hold the decree reading needs to hear. The larger dispute can stay where it belongs. Some who do hold the decree reading say the same thing. The argument from foreknowledge turns up on at least one careful Reformed philosopher's list of arguments for his own position that he declines to use, on the ground that he does not find it compelling. That is worth knowing, because it shows the narrow claim belongs to no party. See also: Philosophy / Free Will: Theological Determinism and the Authorship of Sin Philosophy / Free Will: What the Sovereignty Texts Say, and What They Do Not
+ There is a simpler solution: give up foreknowledge of free choices. God knows everything knowable, future free choices are not knowable, and nothing is lost but a philosopher's puzzle.
1. The motive is the right one. Open theists are not trying to shrink God. They are trying to keep human freedom real, which is exactly what the fatalist's argument threatens, and they have concluded that his argument works. Given that conclusion, dropping foreknowledge is the consistent move to make, and it takes some courage to make it. So the disagreement is narrower than it looks from outside. It is a disagreement about whether the fatalist's argument works, and (P2) through (P4) are the case that it does not. 2. If the argument fails, the trade buys nothing. The only reason anybody pays a price is to get something in return. If foreknowledge never threatened freedom in the first place, then surrendering it purchases exactly nothing, and a doctrine will have been given up for a fallacy. 3. What is given up is not a philosopher's puzzle. Isaiah puts the ability to declare what is coming forward as the credential that separates God from an idol (Isaiah 41:23), and says the announcements were made in advance so that nobody could credit the idols afterwards (Isaiah 48:5). Jesus foretells a betrayal so that the disciples "may believe that I am he" (John 13:19). Peter is told his denials with a count and a deadline (Mark 14:30). Those texts do not merely report that God happened to know a few things. They make advance knowledge a mark of deity and a ground of faith. 4. The open theist has answers to every one of those texts. He is not stuck for a reply, and he has a reading ready for each. - The relenting passages describe a God who genuinely changes course. - The prophecies are announcements of what God will himself do, or forecasts drawn from causes already in place. - Omniscience means knowing every truth there is, and future free acts are not any of them. Each of those deserves an answer at length rather than a paragraph. The narrow claim to be made against them is just this: the argument that forced the trade does not work, so the trade is not forced. See also: Philosophy / Free Will: The Future Is Not Open to God: Answering Open Theism
+ Every proposed solution to this problem has a serious cost. Picking one and calling it the answer is just choosing which bullet to bite.
1. Every answer on offer does cost something. Zagzebski's survey says exactly that, and reporting it honestly is a good deal better than pretending the literature has settled. Here are the five bills, four of them named for the man whose answer it is. - The Boethian answer, which puts God outside time altogether, needs a theory of timeless knowledge, and that raises difficulties of its own. - The Ockhamist answer, named for the fourteenth-century friar William of Ockham, needs the line between hard and soft facts to be principled rather than merely convenient. - The Molinist answer, named for the sixteenth-century Jesuit Luis de Molina, needs it to be true, right now, what each person would freely do in any situation he might ever be placed in. - The decree reading, on which God knows what you will do because he has settled that you will do it, costs the freedom the whole dispute was about (D6). - Giving up foreknowledge, which is the open theist's route, costs God his knowledge of what free creatures will do. Those who take it say that is no loss to omniscience at all, since on their view there was never anything there to know. Their critics answer that Isaiah puts announcing what is not yet done forward as the credential separating God from an idol (Isaiah 41:23), so what is being surrendered is not a philosopher's convenience. Nobody walks away from this clean. That is the honest state of the field, and it belongs on the table before the bills get compared. 2. A cost is not a refutation. Every position in a hard field carries a price. The question is never whether a view costs something, but what it costs next to what its rivals cost, and that comparison is a judgment anybody can make once the bills are itemized. Of the five, the Ockhamist bill looks like the smallest. The Boethian answer asks for divine timelessness and still needs help with a present-tense version of the argument. The Molinist answer asks that a whole class of conditionals be true with nothing in the world yet to make them so, which is a real bill even if it can be paid. The open theist's answer gives up God's knowledge of what you will freely do. The decree reading gives up the very freedom the whole dispute was about. The Ockhamist answer asks only that a belief about the future be a fact about the past that depends on the future, and it is the one item on the list that gives up nothing whatever about God. 3. Answering one argument does not require tidying the whole field. Notice how modest the conclusion actually is. It is not that the relation between divine knowledge and human freedom is now fully understood. It is that one particular argument, running from foreknowledge to fatalism, does not work. A negative result of that kind can be perfectly secure while the positive account is still being argued over.
+ Scripture has God regretting that he made man, relenting at Nineveh, and changing his mind after Moses argues with him. That is not a God who knew what was coming.
1. The texts are real and they are not marginal. God "regretted that he had made man on the earth" (Genesis 6:6). After the golden calf "the Lord relented from the disaster that he had spoken of bringing on his people" (Exodus 32:14). At Nineveh "God relented of the disaster that he had said he would do to them, and he did not do it" (Jonah 3:10). Hezekiah is told he will die, prays about it, and is then told "I will add fifteen years to your life" (2 Kings 20:6). Anybody who answers all that by saying the texts do not really mean anything has answered nothing at all, and everyone listening will know it. 2. The same Scriptures state the rule these stories are obeying. Jeremiah lays out the standing policy in so many words. When God announces that he will pluck up a nation, "and if that nation, concerning which I have spoken, turns from its evil, I will relent of the disaster that I intended to do to it" (Jeremiah 18:7-8), and the reverse holds for a promise (Jeremiah 18:9-10). That is not an escape hatch invented by commentators with a doctrine to protect. It is the text explaining its own idiom. An announced judgment carries a condition whether or not the condition is spoken aloud, and a condition being met is not news to the one who set it. Hezekiah's fifteen years are the same rule at work: a sentence announced, a prayer, a sentence lifted. 3. The harder texts are the ones about knowing. Jeremiah's policy handles the relenting passages cleanly enough. It does not handle everything, and the texts it leaves standing are the harder ones. At the mountain the angel stops Abraham's hand, "for now I know that you fear God" (Genesis 22:12). Moses tells Israel that God led them forty years in the wilderness "testing you to know what was in your heart" (Deuteronomy 8:2). Those are sentences about knowledge, with no announced threat anywhere in view, and the word "now" in the first of them is doing exactly the work the objection wants done. Anyone who says the objection has no good texts has not read them. Two things can be said in reply, and neither one is a trick. First, a test is how a thing is shown and not only how it is found out. The knife over Isaac made public what had until then been private, and Deuteronomy describes those forty years as forming Israel at least as much as informing anybody about Israel. Second, taking the testing texts as discovery means taking Genesis 18:21 the same way, and then God does not know the present either, which is a good deal further than the objection wants to go. 4. The same books deny the surface reading in the plainest words available. Samuel is told that "the Glory of Israel will not lie or have regret, for he is not a man, that he should have regret" (1 Samuel 15:29). That sentence sits in the same chapter as one of the strongest relenting texts in the Bible. Balaam is told that "God is not man, that he should lie, or a son of man, that he should change his mind" (Numbers 23:19). Any reading of these books has to hold both sets of texts at once. A reading that takes the relenting literally and the denials figuratively has made a choice, and so has a reading that goes the other way. The difference between them is that only one has a stated rule to appeal to. 5. The literalism does not stay where it is put. This is the part that usually decides it. The same method that reads Genesis 6:6 as ignorance of the future has to read God's "I will go down to see whether they have done altogether according to the outcry that has come to me" (Genesis 18:21) as ignorance of the present, and it has to do so in a chapter where God knows what Sarah said to herself under her breath (Genesis 18:12-13). Press the method further and it takes in the eyes, the hands, the nostrils and the outstretched arm, and arrives at last at a God with a body. Almost nobody wants that destination, and the reason nobody wants it is that everybody already reads these texts as speaking of God in human terms. The only question is how far the practice extends, and nobody applies it consistently in the direction the objection needs. See also: Philosophy / Free Will: The Future Is Not Open to God: Answering Open Theism
+ Judas was foretold and Peter was foretold, by name and in detail. Whatever the philosophy says, those two men could not have done otherwise, and one of them was condemned for it.
1. This is the objection with a face. An abstract argument about Jones and his lawn can feel like a shell game. Judas cannot. He is named, the betrayal is announced out loud at the table, and then the woe is pronounced on him for doing the very thing announced: "The Son of Man goes as it is written of him, but woe to that man by whom the Son of Man is betrayed!" (Matthew 26:24). If foreknowledge takes freedom away, this is where it will show. And if it does not, this is where the answer has to hold. 2. The text puts the plan and the guilt in one sentence and refuses to choose. Notice what Jesus does not say. He does not say that the betrayal was written and therefore Judas is excused. He does not say that Judas was free and therefore the Scriptures were only guessing. He says both halves in a single breath, and of the two halves the woe is the heavier. Peter preaches the same structure about the crucifixion. Jesus was "delivered up according to the definite plan and foreknowledge of God," and the men listening to Peter had "crucified and killed by the hands of lawless men" (Acts 2:23). The plan does not make the hands any less lawless. 3. (P3) and (P4) explain why both halves stand. Apply them to Judas directly. What was written was written because Judas would do it, so the knowing follows the act rather than shaping it. And had Judas not done it, the announcement would never have been made in those terms in the first place. That is not a dodge. It is the ordinary case showing up in an extreme instance. The prediction is exactly as reliable as it looks and exactly as powerless as any other piece of knowledge. 4. A spoken prophecy is a harder case than a silent belief. There is a sharper version of this objection and it deserves its own hearing. A belief God keeps to himself may well be harmless. A prediction spoken out loud at a supper table is a public commitment, and God's own faithfulness is now bound up with its coming true. Whatever was the case beforehand, the argument runs, once Jesus had said the words, Judas had to go through with it or God's word would fail. Grant the first half of that without hesitation. Some announcements are declarations of what God will himself do or bring about, and those belong to providence, God's active governing of what happens, rather than to bare foreknowledge. Foreknowledge as such is not a claim that God merely watched. The second half is the part that does not follow. What God commits himself to is what he knows, and what he knows is what Judas would do. Had Judas not done it, the words spoken at the table would never have been those words, any more than a forecast of Thursday's rain would have been that forecast if Thursday were dry. The faithfulness of God is engaged to the truth, and the truth waited on Judas. 5. Providence is a further question. Somebody who thinks God arranged the circumstances, or hardened a heart that was already set, is asking about providence rather than about foreknowledge. That is a genuine question with a long history behind it, and it stays open. The claim being made about Judas is a narrow one. The foretelling as such did not take his act out of his hands, and the Gospel writers plainly did not think that it had.
+ This has nothing to do with God: if it is true right now that you will do something tomorrow, then you will do it, and that is that. Adding an omniscient knower is decoration.
1. The objection is correct. This is the old Greek fatalism with the theology stripped out of it, and there is no trap here. The argument really does run without God. Necessarily, if it is true that you will do a thing, you will do it; it is true; therefore you will. Add nobody at all to that and fatalism follows just as fast as it did before. Richard Taylor, who defended fatalism, needed no God for it whatever. His version ran on nothing but a statement's being true in advance, and the decade of replies it drew never had to mention God either. The theological version is that same argument with a detour through a believer, and the detour adds nothing at all to the reasoning. 2. The problem was never foreknowledge. Follow the consequence out. If the reasoning works, then the mere truth of a statement about tomorrow settles tomorrow, and every true prediction anybody has ever made was a sentence passed on the person predicted about. If the reasoning does not work, then it does not work with God added to it either. Either way, God drops out of the argument and the Christian doctrine of foreknowledge is not the thing on trial. That is a considerable relief. 3. The fatalist's usual repair does not survive contact. Pressed on this, the fatalist says that God's holding a belief is a fact about the past in a way that a bare statement's being true is not. That distinction has to be made out, and attempts to make it out keep running into ordinary usage. If a man believed in 1997 that something would happen, then his believing it was a fact about 1997, and the truth of what he believed was every bit as much a fact about 1997. When the thing failed to happen, it became a fact that what he had believed was false. Statements changing from true to false look a good deal like events, too. "The flight departs in five minutes" is false all morning, true for one moment, and false again afterwards. Sorting all of this into facts and non-facts in a way that saves the argument is work no fatalist has yet done. 4. The right response to both versions is the same. Whatever blocks the inference for the bare statement blocks it for God's belief, and (P2) is the block: from the fact that a thing is truly said in advance it follows that the thing will happen, never that it had to.
+ Your answer depends on Molinism, which most Christians do not hold. So it is not available to the ordinary believer who just wants to know whether God's knowing ruins his freedom.
1. The answer is two hundred years older than Molinism. Molinism, named for the sixteenth-century Jesuit Luis de Molina, holds that God knows what any person would freely do in any circumstance he might be placed in, and that he plans the world around those truths. Philosophers call that middle knowledge, because it sits between God's knowledge of what could happen and his knowledge of what he has decided will happen. Now count the years. The answer (P4) rests on is Ockham's, and Ockham died in 1347. Molina was not born until 1535. Whatever middle knowledge adds to the picture, the reply to the fatalist was in hand nearly two centuries before it existed, and it has been held ever since by people who reject middle knowledge outright. 2. Neither premise uses middle knowledge. (P3) uses nothing but the claim that knowledge conforms to its object, and that is common property. (P4) uses the claim that God's belief about a future act depends on the act, which is the same thought stated about the past. Neither one mentions what a creature would freely do in circumstances he never meets, or which worlds God could have created, or the order in which God knows what he knows. Somebody could accept both premises and hold no view at all about how God knows. 3. Middle knowledge answers a further question. It is fair to say that a full doctrine of providence wants more than the argument against fatalism supplies. How God knows a free act, and how he can govern a world of free creatures in any detail, are questions the fatalism argument simply leaves alone. Middle knowledge is one answer to them. But an answer to a further question is not a premise in this one, and the distinction matters for a practical reason. Somebody who cannot accept middle knowledge is not thereby stuck with fatalism. 4. Nor does the answer lean on divine timelessness. Many Christians decline that doctrine too, and they lose nothing here. Neither premise requires a verdict on whether God is in time, which is why the Boethian reply is offered as available rather than assumed. See also: Philosophy / Free Will: God Knows What You Would Freely Do, and Plans Around It
+ The Smith example proves nothing. Smith merely happens to be right about tomorrow, while God cannot be wrong at all, and an infallible believer's belief is a different kind of fact from a lucky guess.
1. The difference is real and it should be granted. Smith could have been wrong. God could not. That is not a quibble, and an old reply to the fatalist came to grief on exactly this point. It used to be said that human foreknowledge compels nobody, so divine foreknowledge compels nobody either. Jonathan Edwards answered that human foreknowledge is fallible and God's is not, which leaves the two cases unalike precisely where it counts, and on that narrow point he was right. The Smith case was never that argument. 2. The substitution tests the inference, not the knower. Look at what the popular argument actually uses. It uses that God believes, that the belief is true, and that a true belief and the thing believed cannot come apart. It never once uses the claim that the belief could not have been mistaken, because it never needed to. So a believer who merely happens to be right satisfies every premise the argument leans on, and out drops the same conclusion. That tells you the defect lies in the shape of the inference rather than in the credentials of the believer. Think of a kitchen scale reading twelve pounds for a bag of flour. Whether it is a cheap scale that happened to be right or a laboratory instrument that could not have been wrong makes an enormous difference to what you may safely conclude from the reading. It makes no difference whatever to how heavy the flour is. 3. Infallibility by itself does not reach the conclusion. Grant the difference, then, and ask what it buys. It buys this much: nobody can make God's belief a false one. Everybody here agrees about that, and (P4) concedes it in so many words before anything else is said. To get from there to Jones being unable to refrain, the fatalist still needs that ancient belief to be beyond Jones's reach in every other respect as well, and it is the fixity of the past doing that work, not the infallibility. Which means the objection is not really a defense of the popular argument at all. It is the step from the popular argument to the serious one, and the serious one is where (P4) is aimed. 4. Infallibility is what makes the belief lean forward. The difference cuts the other way as well, and that is the part the objection does not see coming. Smith's belief really is a hard fact about the past. Smith could have been wrong, so his believing on Monday guarantees nothing at all about Saturday, and his belief would have stood exactly as it did whatever Jones goes on to do. God's belief could not have stood whatever Jones does, and the reason is the very one the objection insists on. God cannot be wrong. A belief that carries Saturday around inside it was never a fact locked in the moment it was held in, and that is what (P4) means by calling it soft. So the objection hands over the premise it meant to take away. The fatalist needs both halves at once, a believer who could not have been wrong and a belief locked in a past nobody can reach, and the two halves pull against each other. Take the infallibility away and God's ancient belief is as hard as Smith's, and just as harmless. Leave the infallibility in, and it is the infallibility itself that unlocks the past. 5. An infallible believer tracks the act rather than binding it. Here is what infallibility comes to for Jones, spelled out in full. If Jones mows, God believed he would mow. If Jones refrains, God believed he would refrain. There is no third case, and ruling out that third case is the whole of what infallibility guarantees. What it never supplies is a case in which Jones tries to stay home and finds that he cannot. Until the fatalist produces one, what he has described is a witness who cannot be fooled rather than a guard who will not let Jones past.
+ Grant everything. It is not up to me what God believed before I was born, and not up to me that his beliefs are never false, and what follows from two things not up to me is not up to me either.
1. The move at the end of this objection has a name. This is the sharpest shape the case against foreknowledge takes, and the step doing the work at the end is called a transfer principle. It is easy enough to state. If something is not up to you, and that something guarantees that a second thing will happen, then the second thing is not up to you either. The principle is better known from the case against determinism, where the untouchable fact is the state of the world before anybody was born, together with the laws that run it. Swap in God's ancient belief and the theological twin appears. There is no fallacy in it, no advance pressure, and no confusion of certainty with necessity, which is exactly why it survives everything said in (P2). 2. The first premise is exactly what is denied. Separate out the two things said not to be up to Jones, because they are not alike at all. That God's beliefs are never false is not up to Jones, and nobody here pretends otherwise; it belongs to what God is. That God believed eighty years ago that Jones would mow is another matter altogether, and (P4) denies it in plain words. Had Jones been going to golf instead, that ancient belief would have been a belief about golf. So the objection is not turned aside on a technicality. It is answered at its first line, and answering it at its first line is what the whole soft-fact case exists to do. 3. The deepest form of the complaint is that a dependence is not an ability. Here the argument gets genuinely hard, and it is worth slowing down for. Suppose every word of (P4) is granted. What has been produced, the objector says, is a relation and nothing more: were Jones to refrain, the belief would have been different. A relation is not a power. Jones was asked for an ability, the ability to stay off the lawn on Saturday afternoon, and what he has been handed instead is a conditional. So ask what that ability was ever supposed to consist in. Jones has to be able to put the mower back in the shed and drive to the golf course. That is an ordinary ability and every man with a lawn has it. The fatalist's entire argument was the claim that in Jones's case it had somehow gone missing, and the claim ran through the fixity of the past. Take the fixity away and the ordinary ability is sitting exactly where it always was. Nothing extra has to be supplied, and no second power over that eighty-year-old belief has to be discovered anywhere. Think of it this way. A footballer can retire at the end of the season, and if he does retire, it will follow that last Saturday's match was his second to last. That consequence is not some additional power over last Saturday which he has to hold on top of the power to hand in his boots. It is a description of what handing in his boots would have meant for last Saturday. What the objector is entitled to is the claim that counterfactual dependence is not itself a power. What he is not entitled to is the conclusion, because the dependence was never offered as a power. It was offered as the reason his fixity premise fails. 4. The transfer principle has to be restricted anyway. Run it on a fact with no God anywhere in it. It was true in 1946 that you would eat whatever you ate for breakfast this morning. That truth looks as far beyond your reach as anything could possibly be, and it guarantees the breakfast. Transfer the powerlessness along the guarantee and this morning's breakfast was not up to you either, which is fatalism arrived at with no believer in the story at all. The principle also has a known hole in it, and the hole was found in a case with no theology anywhere near it. There is a coin in my pocket this morning and I never take it out. Because I never toss it, the coin does not come down heads, and that much was not up to me: even had I tossed it, I would have had no say in which face came up. For the same reason it was not up to me that the coin does not come down tails. Now put those two together, which is exactly what the principle licenses, and out comes the verdict that it was not up to me that the coin came down neither way. That is the one thing in the whole story which plainly was up to me, because I could have tossed it. Peter van Inwagen, who gave the principle its modern form in the case against determinism, granted that the version he first stated fails, and set about repairing it. The repairs are still being argued over, and a step under repair is a thin floor for a proof that nobody is free. Refusing that step is no modern expedient either. Laid out one line at a time, nearly every line of the argument has been denied by somebody the church still reads. Aristotle denied that a statement about a future free act is true in advance at all. Ockham denied that God's past belief is beyond reach. Duns Scotus denied this very transfer. Everybody has to say where the principle stops, the fatalist included, or it will eat his own deliberations along with everyone else's. The Ockhamist says where it stops and why. It stops at facts that lean forward, because a fact that waits on what you do was never out of your reach to begin with. See also: Philosophy / Free Will: If Determinism Is True, Nothing Is Up to Us

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